MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Jimena threatens Baja

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Even though Danny reached Nova Scotia as an extratropical system, winds in Halifax and along the southern coast of Nova Scotia were higher than they were in Hurricane Bill which remained offshore.

Invest 94L, which we have been following since it moved off of the coast of Africa is looking a bit more circular in appearance today. The visible satellite image below is from our exclusive McIDAS satellite system. There appears to be some outflow in the northern semicircle as indicative by the high level cirrus clouds. The convection is displaced from the center a  bit and scattered over a large area. However, there does not appear to be any significant shear occurring. If the convection increases and becomes more concentrated near the center over the next few days, Erika could potentially form. The models are somewhat split in moving the system either into the Caribbean or north of the Lesser Antilles. Based upon the current upper winds and recent storms in that area, it appears more likely that the system will pass north of the islands. That would put it in more of a position to recurve long before it could reach Florida.

 The image below is an excellent visible image of Category 4 Hurricane Jimena, located about 470 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Historically, most hurricanes in August and early September turn more to the west and miss Baja. However, the models are beginning to show more of a threat from Jimena to the Baja Peninsula. Places like Cabo San Lucas could be affected over the next few days. There is even a potential for some of the moisture associated with Jimena to make it into Southern California. Of course, that would help with the recent California fires.

The official track still has Jimena as a major hurricane as she approaches the southern tip of Baja California on Wednesday.

Due to the El Nino currently occuring in the Pacific, the tropical Pacific continues to be very active. Tropical Storm Kevin, however, looks like it will dissipate before reaching land.

In the Central North Pacific , Tropical Depression 2-C is expected to become a tropical storm but it should not affect the Hawaiian Islands.