MyFoxHurricane.com blog

T.D. #8 likely to fall apart

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

T.D. # 8 is learning what just about every other storm in the Atlantic has had to deal with, wind shear. The el Nino of 2009 is taking its toll on another tropical system.

T.D. # 8 is located 660 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and has show some deep convection early this morning, but all of this convection is displaced to the north of the center and there are no signs that this convection is pulling towards the center.

The close-up visible imagery clearly indicates the convection to the northeast of the center with the western and southern side of the depression lacking any convection. The water vapor imagery over this same area shows a large area of dry air in the path of T.D. #8 and some of this dry air is beginning to make its way into the center.

The water vapor loop also shows the southwest wind shear which is blowing all the deeper convection northeast of the center. Analysis shows 15 kts of wind shear over the system now and computer models indicate this will likely continue over the next 3 to 4 days.

The wind shear forecast from the myfoxhurricane.com tropical WRF model indicates windshear to continue in the 15 to 20 knot range over the depression through early next week. This combined with the dry air being entrained into the system will make it unlikely that it will ever become a tropical storm and this system will struggle to survive the next few days.