MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Bahama disturbance remains weak

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

A weak inverted trough at the surface continues to show up at the surface over the western Bahamas. There is not much deep convection. Most of the rain is in curved bands of light showers that are moving into South Florida. The main rotation is higher in the atmosphere in association with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low. A weak cold front  moving eastward into central Florida will cause the low to recurve to the North. Because of its close proximity to land and the fact that it will be absorbed into the approaching cold front over the next few next, I do not expect development of this system into a tropical storm. The Hurricane Center is giving Invest 95L a 30% chance of development into a tropical depression. Convection has flared up in the Central Caribbean. Once again shear is fairly high there and should retard development even though water temperatures are above normal for this time of year in the Caribbean (91 degrees near San Juan).