MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tropical Season Winding down

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The upper level disturbance that was over the Bahamas yesterday still shows evidence of a weak circulation but the rotation is in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. A surface low appears to be forming near the east coast of Florida offshore of Vero Beach. The low is not tropical in nature and is attached to a stationary front. The WRF model moves the low northward over the next few day but keeps it as a baroclinic low. Tropical systems are barotropic not baroclinic.

The upper level in the Bahamas is causing a flare-up of convection in the central Caribbean as a weak tropical wave moves westward. However, the shear from the upper TUTT low will keep the wave from developing. Convection has increased in the central tropical Atlantic midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Shear is still high there so no intensification is forecast.

Water temperatures remain very warm in the Caribbean and SW Atlantic with a water temperature of 91 still being reported near San Juan, Puerto Rico. But, as we have seen all season, warm water temperature is just one of many ingredients that must combine to allow tropical development. The continued El Nino is still causing shear in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Neki is WNW of the Hawaiian Islands but is giving them a wide berth. Neki has been nearly stationary but is forecast to regain northward movement and move into the open central Pacific.