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2009 Season in Review

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The 2009 Atlantic basin hurricane season was more inactive than normal. Looking at the numbers of tropical cyclones does not tell the whole story. There were 9 named tropical storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. This compares with the long term averages of 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes (winds greater than 110 MPH).

In addition, the strength and duration of the tropical systems was weaker and shorter than normal, respectively. The National Hurricane Center has an objective way of measuring the relative strength of the season. In 2009 the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was only  50 which is less than half of the average which is 102.3. This is the lowest ACE since 1997. So, in addition to the fact that the total number of tropical cycloness was below normal, the total energy of the season was less than half of normal.

The primary reason that the season was so weak was the presence of  an El Niño , which produced stronger than normal shear especially in the Caribbean Sea. A secondary reason was drier than normal condition in the mid levels of the atmosphere throughout much of the areas that are usually favored for tropical storm development.

There were no named storms in June or July, 2009. The season did not start until Ana developed on August 15. We came very close to making it a later starting season than another El Niño year  - 1992. Even though 1992 was a generally weak season, the year is remembered for Hurricane Andrew which began on August 17.

Due to the fact that no hurricanes hit the United States and the strength of the total season was well below normal, fortunately loss of life was also low. The total direct death toll from hurricanes in 2009 was four.

The figure below shows the path of tropical storm Ana. Ana was a short lived storm that dissipated over an area where intensification ususally occurs. Tropical systems that weaken over warm tropical water, as opposed to, land or cold water are more likely to do so in an El Niño year. In fact, there were four other named storms that also dissipated over warm water regions.

The figure below shows the path of Hurricane Bill,which was the strongest hurricane of 2009. Bill was a classic Cape Verde type of hurricane . Bill reached Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fortunately, for the United States, Bill recurved before making is as far west as the U.S. Bermuda was not so lucky and experienced some gusty winds. A place that is not normally associated with hurricanes, Nova Scotia, experienced gale force winds along the southern coast from Mahone Bay to Halifax. Bill was responsible for 2 deaths.

 The figure below shows the path of Tropical Storm Claudette. Even though the path does not indicate it, the precursor circulation of Claudette affected the lower and middle Florida Keys with heavy rain. Claudette was the only Florida landfalling storm and crossed the coast at Ft. Walton Beach on August 17.  

The figure below shows the path of Tropical Storm Danny. The map doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Danny was absorbed by an extratropical low and provided moisture and energy as the new system moved to the northeast. Eventually, ex-Danny caused strong winds once again to the south coast of Nova Scotia.

 Erika was another example of a tropical storm that weakened in an area that one would normally expect intensification in the middle of summer. Erika caused moderate rainfall totals in the Lesser Antilles but she was not responsible for any deaths or major damage.

Fred, shown in the figure below, started out as a very strong system in the eastern Atlantic but fizzled due to shear and dry air before even reaching the central Atlantic.  Fred was only the third storm on record to become a major hurricane eat of 35° West.  

Grace (shown below) started out as an extratropical system. She developed in relatively cool waters near the Azores Islands. Grace moved northeast towards Ireland before merging with another extratropical storm.

Henri always existed in a strong shear environment. The surprise with Henri was not that is dissipated so quickly but that it developed at all.

Ida (shown below) was the biggest surpise of the season. After persistent shear in the Caribbean throughout the hurricane season, oddly enough Ida developed in November. Ida created a few anxious moments along the Gulf coast as she strengthened to a category 2 storm in the Yucatan Channel. Ida succumbed to shear and cooler water temperatures in the northern Gulf before making landfall near Dauphin Island, AL as a minimal tropical storm. Even though it has been widely reported that Ida was the second latest tropical cyclone to make Gulf Coast landall, I count it as the 3rd latest Gulf landfall. A hurricane in 1925 crossed the coast near Brandenton on the night of November 30 and the morning of December 1. Also, Hurricane Kate struck near Apalachicola on November 21. In addition to Danny, Ida also provided energy to an extratropical storm. Even though the offical track does not show it here, ex-Ida went on to cause near record tidal flooding in Chesapeake Bay 

Tropics quiet as season winds down

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The tropics are quiet once again not that Ida has passed. It has not been a very active season to say the least and the view across the Tropical Atlantic continues to look very quiet.

The ITCZ has a few clusters of disorganized thunderstorms. There is also a disorganized are north of Puerto Rico which we have seen for several days. This is associated with a cold core (non-tropical) low and shows no signs of organization. The Caribbean is virturally cloud free along with a band of clouds in the Gulf which is associated with a dissipating cold front.

Caribbean water temperatures are in the low to mid 80s which is still warm enough for tropical development but a large ridge and dry air has dominated most of the Gulf and Caribbean over the past several days.

This subsidence will continue to keep the Caribbean cloud free for the next couple of days. During the month of November we normally watch the western Caribbean for tropical development and those systems that do develop normally move towards the NE and into the Atlantic.

With just a couple of weeks left in the season it is quite possible we have seen the last of Hurricane Season 2009.

Record flooding from Ex(tratropical)-Ida

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Last night when I was writing my blog, I was following the storm tide at Sewell’s Point, Virginia. The water levels continued to rise after I posted and finally peaked at 7.74′ above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 6:24 PM EST, November 12, 2009.  The all time record high storm tide was 7.89′ with Hurricane Isable in 2003. It is really amazing that after all of the hurricanes and Nor’easters that have affected this area, it was the extratropical part of Ida that almost produced the highest water levels on record in this part of Chesapeake Bay near Norfolk, VA. Tides have been continuously running above normal for about 3 days now. Even today the water level was 7.34′ above MLLW at 6:00 AM and 6.14 at 5:42 PM, November 13.  Day after day of high tides and pounding surf are really causing problems from coastal Virginia and Delaware up to New Jersey. The map below shows mid-Atlantic coastal location where water level sensors are installed.

The graph below show the normal predicted tide and what actually occured at Sewell’s Point, VA. The red line is the actual water level and the blue line is the astromically predicted tide.

The water level at nearby Money’s Point, VA (near Norfolk, VA) was even higher at 8.59′ above MLLW at 7:12 PM EST, November 12, 2009.  Accompanying the high tides were winds gusting up to 70 MPH at the Norfolk Airport.  The winds at Sewell’s point gusted to 50 knots (see the wind graph below).

Even at Washington, DC, the storm tide was 4.66′ at 4:48 PM EST, November 13 (See the image below).

At least the worst of the storm is over. All of the computer  models show a slow drift of the system to the east and eventually southeast as extratropical Ida weakens.

The satellite picture below shows that storm is “unwinding” somewhat as the heaviest rains (red areas) are getting displaced farther away from the center of circulation

Ex-Ida causing major flooding

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Technically, the surface low pressure center of Ida that was tracked into South Carolina 2 days ago became absorbed by a secondary low that formed at about the same time that extratropical Ida was beginning to move off of the coast. The secondary low, however, was energized by all of the tropical moisture which it entrained.

The movement of the new Nor’easter has been very slow.  As a result, rain has been falling over the same areas for a long time. In addition, the large wind field from this system has been causing a long fetch right into Chesapeake Bay. Nearly record storm tides are being recorded in Virginia and Delaware. This stage of Ida is causing more damage and flooding than the original tropical stage. Norfolk, VA has been keeping tide records since 1927. Only two other systems, Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and the Chesapeake-Atlantic hurricane of 1933 have caused higher tides. Most of the Nor’easters at this latitude move more quickly and do no allow the building of coastal water due to a large fetch which ex-Ida has done. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Cape Henry, VA both experienced wind gusts as high as 64 MPH.

At Sewell’s Point, VA, I have seen the tide as high as 7.6 feet above mean lower low water at 5:36 PM EST. This is approaching the 4th highest storm surge behind the Ash Wednesday storm on 1962, Hurricane Isabel in 2003, the April 11, 1957 Nor’easter and the 1933 Chespeake-Atlantic hurricane. If it continue to rise about 8.9 feet it would be the highest on record. The graph below shows the water level . The predicted astronomical levels are shown in blue and the actual in shown in red.

The satellite and radar images below show heavy rain and convection still moving ashore with the slow moving low pressure area. Rainfall totals in Virginia are up to 9.13″ at Jones Creek, 4.93″ in Newport News/Williamsburg International Airport, 4.71″ at Roanoke. The final rainfall total in Atlanta was 5.98″.

Ida still a big rain maker

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Many times when tropical systems undergo extratopical transformation as Ida did, the introduction of tropical moisture into an environment of a mixture of air masses can cause copious amounts of moisture over a very large area. The circulation of a tropical systems expands as it becomes extratropical. Rainfall of over 4″ has affected large areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina. Opelika, AL has had almost 10″ of rain since Ida began.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 4 PM EST

…ALABAMA…
OPELIKA 11.0 S                                9.83                    �
FOLEY 0.5 ESE                                 6.66                    �
CENTREVILLE 6SW                        6.35                    �
PHENIX CITY 2.2 NNW                6.33                    �
CLANTON 8.6 E                                6.30                    �
TUSKEGEE 8.9 E                               6.22                    �
SYLACAUGA 9.2 S                          6.17                    �
WARRIOR LOCK AND DAM        6.15                    �
SUMMERDALE 2.5 ESE                 6.13                    �
ELBERTA 3.1 SSW                           5.85                    �
CLANTON                                           5.69                    �
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                                5.62                    �
SMITHS 5NW                                     5.54                    �
BREWTON 3SSE                                5.50                    �
DEMOPOLIS LOCK & DAM           5.46                    �
ATMORE 12N                                    5.41                    �
WADLEY 1WNW                              5.33                    �
BREWTON 3ENE                              5.20                    �
LAFAYETTE 2W                              5.10                    �
USFS TALLADEGA                          5.01                     

…FLORIDA…
GONZALEZ 2.5 NNW                     6.78                    �
PORT ST. JOE 0.6 SE                     6.32                    �
LAKELAND 1.5 W                          5.75                    �
ENSLEY 2.1 ENE                             5.36                    �
BELLVIEW 1.7 NW                        5.12                    �
MILTON 17.7 NNE                        4.83                    �
PACE 2.4 N                                       4.72                    �
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 12.5 NW 4.65                    �
CRESTVIEW/BOB SIKES              4.53                    �
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW      4.41                    �
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT          4.07                    �
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS 12WNW 4.02                     

…GEORGIA…
COLUMBUS 15NW (GA POWER CO)   7.25                    �
FORSYTH 6.0 NNW                      6.86                    �
WOODBURY                                    6.85                    �
COLUMBUS 11NNW                     6.48                    �
BOGART 4.2 SE                              6.00                    �
DOUGLASVILLE 0.2 N               5.90                    �
WEST POINT                                   5.84                    �
BLUE RIDGE 11.9 SSE                 5.79                    �
CEDARTOWN 3.0 SW                  5.77                    �
STOCKBRIDGE 3.1 E                    5.72                    �
TALBOTTON                                   5.70                    �
MONTICELLO (WATER PLANT)   5.70                    �
BLAIRSVILLE 6.8 SSE                5.70                    �
ATLANTA                                        5.67
COLUMBUS                                     5.60                    �
ROSWELL 4SSW                            5.59                    �
MORGAN FALLS DAM               5.56                    �
LA GRANGE 10.6 ESE                5.52                    �
HARTWELL                                    5.48
CHOESTOE (TVA)                        5.35
FORT BENNING                            5.33                    �
DALLAS 3NE                                 5.22                    �
ALPHARETTA 4SSW                  5.22                    �
MONROE (LARC)                         5.20                    �
DORAVILLE 2NNE                     5.18                    �
WARESVILLE                               5.15                    �
NORCROSS 3SSW                        5.10                    �
CULLODEN 13SW                        5.07                    �
AUBURN 5NNW                          5.02                    �
DALLAS 7NE                                5.00                     

…MISSISSIPPI…
WAYNESBORO 2W                      4.13                    �
WIGGINS 6E                                 4.11                     

…NORTH CAROLINA  …
BREVARD 7E                                5.61                    �
COLUMBUS 6.6 NNW                5.10                    �
BREVARD 1NNE                         5.00                       �
                �
FRANKLIN 9.6 S                         4.83                    �
HENDERSONVILLE 6SW (IFLOWS)   4.64                    �
EAST FLAT ROCK 0.5 NNE     4.45                    �
LAUREL PARK 1.7 NW            4.43                    �
HOGBACK (IFLOWS)                 4.41                    �
SALEM 4SSW (IFLOWS)           4.40                    �
HIGHLAND (TVA)                     4.36                    �
ELIZABETHTOWN 6.2 NW     4.33                    �
HENDERSONVILLE 9.6 ENE   4.32                    �
ROSMAN (IFLOWS)                   4.30                       �
                �
MORGANTON 4E (AG)             4.25                       �
                �
CONCORD 6SW                           4.24                    �
COLUMBUS 1.9 E                       4.21                    �
LAKE LURE                                  4.18                    �
BLANTYRE                                  4.12                    �
MURPHY 2NE                             4.10                    �
RUTHERFORDTON 3N             4.00                     

…SOUTH CAROLINA…
CLARKS HILL 2W                       5.69                    �
WALHALLA 1.5 NW                  5.10                    �
CLEVELAND 4S                          5.08                    �
MARIETTA 1.8 SW                     5.04                    �
SENECA 4.9 N                              4.98                    �
GREENWOOD 0.5 SSE               4.86                    �
WEST UNION 1.5 ESE               4.82                    �
ANTREVILLE 2N                        4.75                    �
SALEM 0.1 SE                               4.74                    �
SENECA 5.5 SSE                          4.73                    �
POMARIA 4.0 N                          4.69                    �
WALHALLA                                  4.68                    �
TABLE ROCK DAM                     4.68                    �
NEWBERRY                                  4.54                    �
GREENWOOD 2.8 NNW           4.50                    �
CLINTON                                       4.44                    �
ST MATTHEWS 12NW              4.30                    �
CALHOUN FALLS                       4.26                    �
LAURENS                                       4.25                    �
GREENVILLE-SPARTENBURG     4.25                       �
         �
CHAPPELLS 2NNW                     4.21                    �
ALLENDALE 2NW                      4.20                    �
TRAVELERS REST 1S                 4.19                       �
                �
SALUDA FILTER PLANT          4.11                    �
LITTLE MOUNTAIN                  4.09                    �
S. RABON CREEK                         4.03                     

…TENNESSEE…
MOUNT LECONTE                        4.11                    �
NEWPORT - FRENCH BROAD RVR (TVA)     3.62                    �
COPPERHILL (TVA)                    3.62                    �
SEVIERVILLE 5.4 ENE              3.57                    �
NEWPORT 5.0 W                          3.57                    �
COSBY                                             3.44                    �
GATLINBURG 2SW/PARK HQ (IFLOWS)      3.34                    �
SEVIERVILLE/LITTLE PIGEON RIVER      3.33                    �
DOUGLAS DAM (TVA)                    3.31                    �
GREENEVILLE 10.1 S                     3.17                       �
                �
TELLICO PLAINS (TVA)                 3.10                    �
WILDWOOD (TVA)                          3.06                    �
CLEVELAND 3.0 ESE                     3.05                    �
MOSHEIM 7.5 WSW                       3.03                    �
MARYVILLE 4.1 SSW                    3.02                    �
ERWIN 8.6 SW                                  3.02                    �
OAK GROVE (TVA)                         3.01                     

…VIRGINIA…
BRISTOL 6.7 W                                2.02

Surprisingly, winds are still fairly strong. I’ve seen gusts as high as 55 MPH earlier today near the Chesapeake Bay lighthouse. Most of the heavy convection (red areas) in the image below are occurring near the Gulf stream just offshore of the Carolinas. Invest 98L is devoid of any deep convection near the center. Many of the computer models have the remains of Ida absorbing invest 98L.

The BAMS model output shown below is valid for Thursday at 8:00 AM EST. The circulation will still be close enough to North Carolina to cause gale force winds and heavy rains. In fact, North Carolina may seem more impact from Ida that where it hit as a tropical storm in Alabama.

Remains of Ida bring flooding rain

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Heavy rains from the remnant low of Ida continue to bring flooding rains across the mid-Atlantic states. Yesterday rainfall tallies across Alabama ranged from just under 4″ of rain in Birmingham, AL to up to Foley, AL with 6.61″ of rain. Atlanta still has a few sprinkles this morning, but things are beginning to dry out after 4.59″ of rain. North Carolina has seen nearly 3″ of rain and it continues to fall as the rain is starting to make its way offshore.

We are also watching Invest 98L which is a non-tropical low with gale force winds.  It does not look as if this system will gain any tropical characteristics.

Computer models indicate that regardless of whether Invest 98L develops into anything or not it will be pulled to the north and merge with the remnants of Ida and move to the north over cooler waters and eventually into the north Atlantic. The rest of the tropics are quiet and we continue our countdown to the end of the hurricane season on November 30th.

Extratropical Ida still causing heavy rain

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Ida made landfall at 6:40 AM EST on Dauphin Island, AL and then moved across Mobile Bay to a second  landfall near Mobile as a tropical storm. She then underwent extratropical transformation and continues as a non-tropical low this evening. At 4:00 PM EST, November 10,  the remains of Ida was centered near 30.7 N, 86.8W or 145 west of Tallahassee, FL. As she moved ashore the maximum sustained winds were at tropical storm force (40 MPH) on Dauphin Island where they had gusts to 50 MPH.  All the other coastal recording gauges had sustained winds below tropical storm force.

The main problem now will be the heavy rains associated with the remains of Ida. As of 4PM EST, November 10 in Alabama, Foley had 6.61″, Summerdale 6.13″, Orange Beach 5.04″ and Mobile 4.49″ of rain. In Florida, Port St. Joe measured 6.32″, Pensacola 4.40″ and Crestview 4.44″ of rain.

Ida will continue to weaken in the near term but could regain strength as a gale center in the Atlantic east of the Carolinas by Thursday. The image below shows the position of the remains of Ida, the low near South Carolina and Invest 98L further out in the Atlantic.

Drier air shown in red in the water vapor image below was entrained into the circulation of Ida beginning last night and was partly responsible for her transition to an extratropical low. Notice the comma shaped cloud area with the extratropical system compared with the more circular appearance yesterday.

 As we say goodbye to Ida another non-tropical low is gaining strength in the central Atlantic.  It does not appear that invest 98L will be able to acquire tropical characteristics before eventually being absorbed by the remains of Ida. The image below shows the model forecast output.

Wind shear will be fairly low once the remains of Ida gets into the Atlantic and it will be relatively low over Invest 98L.

Last advisory issued on Ida, watching Invest 98L

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Ida has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph. The strong southerly shear has moved all the convect well north of the center of the storm and the center is completely void of any showers.

The rain is now moving through Georgia up to Kentucky and West Virginia. There is also a large band of rain still in the Gulf of Mexico which will be moving towards the east and over Florida Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue as the now low pressure moves towards the east with a developing cold front moving through and bringing some drier and slightly cooler air by the end of the week.

The last advisory puts the center about 25 miles WNW of Pensacola, Florida and moving towards the NE at 9mph.

It will continue to move towards the east with breezy conditions as all the moisture moves across Florida and clears by the end of the week.

Further out into the Atlantic we are watching one area associated with a trough of low pressure. This has been designated as Invest 98L. At this point development of this system looks unlikely and if it were to develop it would move towards the north and not affect any land.

Ida continues to weaken and lose tropical characteristics.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

The Gulf of Mexico has done its job on Ida. This morning Ida has weakened to a 50mph tropical storm and the main threat will continue to be heavy rain over the panhandle and areas north into Alabama, and Georgia. As of 5AM Ida was about 60 miles south of Mobile, Alabama and moving to the north at around 9 mph. Once it officially makes landfall, it will likely slow down and drift east before completely falling apart. I know I said this yesterday, but I am sure gald this isn’t August. We probably would have been looking at a major hurricane making landfall. Hopefully Ida can either completely fall apart quickly or continue to move NE so that it doesn’t sit and dump too much rain in the southeast.

Ida weakening, pulling in drier air

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Ida has weakened to a tropical storm this morning. Water Vapor imagery shows a large area of drier air on the western and south western side of the storm which is now beginning to take hold and make its way to the center of Ida.

Southwesterly shear is also picking up which is shearing the strongest convection to the northeast of the center. This storm will continue its weakening trend all the way to land fall as the water temperatures will continue to cool as it moves north and it begins its transition to extra-tropical.

Water temperatures across the northern Gulf are in the lower 70s which will quickly weaken Ida this afternoon and into the evening.

Buoy reports from the Gulf have been impressive with wave heights close to 21 feet. Large surf along the northern Gulf coast is already being observed and will continue to increase through the afternoon with a storm surge to the right of the center of land fall between 3 to 5 feet.