MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Hurricane Earl nears the U.S., more activity follows

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Hurricane Earl, now a category 3 hurricane, is sending out gusty winds and rain bands to the outer banks of the North Carolina coast.  It’s movement is to the North.  Hurricane watches and warnings extend all the way up the East coast.  Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 5pm:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER

Earl is a very strong hurricane with outer bands extending to the Carolinas, as seen easily on the water vapor imagery.  Strong convection and colder clouds tops exist mostly to the South and Southwest of the center.

Hurricane force winds (74mph and greater) extend 70 miles out from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend 205 miles out.  Tropical storm  force winds are expected to occur in the outer banks of North Carolina by Thursday night, with hurricane force winds possible at the immediate coast.

Wave heights are close to 15 feet off the coast of the North Carolina, and are expected to continue and grow as Earl moves North.  For the East coast of Florida, Earl has sparked a high surf advisory.

The path takes Earl almost parallel to the East coast, then up near Cape Cod and Maine, as well as Nova Scotia by Saturday.  At this time, Earl will be weakening as it enters cooler waters and higher wind shear.  As it takes a turn to the N/NE, an increase in forward speed should occur.  Storm surge is expected to be anywhere from 3-5 feet along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals as high as 6 inches possible.  Aside from storm surge, large waves may cause some beach erosion.  Maximum sustained winds near the center are 115 mph with higher gusts.

Including Earl, there are now 3 named storms in the Atlantic, followed by a new tropical wave.

We are still watching Tropical Storm Fiona, but this one is unlikely to reach the U.S.  An Atlantic ridge of high pressure in combination with a cold front exiting the East coast will turn and steer Fiona to the North/Northeast, and this system will weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear.

Tropical Depression Gaston has yet to become organized.  The enhanced satellite imagery shows no cyclonic circulation and no deep layer moisture.  Dry air is begining to cut off this system as it heads to the West.

Conditions no longer look favorable for Gaston to intensify.  It will slowly weaken as it nears the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

The CMC model shows Earl nearing the Lesser Antilles next week, but the model also picks up on a strengthening tropical wave following behind it.  This is something we will have to watch closely.