MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Watching remains of Gaston and the Gulf

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The post-tropical stage of Earl has moved into northern Labrador leaving much of New England and Nova Scotia in clear, calm weather.  Clean up efforts in harder hit Nova Scotia continue Sunday as people deal with thousands of downed trees in the province.

The remains of Gaston have flared up again today in the central Atlantic. If the system reintensifies, watches or warnings may be needed for the Leeward Islands once again. Anyone with interests in the Caribbean should closely follow the progress of this system.

An area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche (Invest 90L) has continued to become more organized on Sunday. There is a short window of opportunity for the low to develop into a tropical cyclone before the center crosses land in northeastern Mexico or extreme south Texas.

A very strong tropical wave is just exiting the African coast. Several model develop this system into a strong tropical cyclone by mid to late week in the central  Atlantic. The Azores-Bermuda high will be stronger by that time which may allow the system to come further west than the recent onslaught of tropical storms and hurricanes.

The other tropical wave shown below southwest of the African wave is disorganized and so far south that the Coriolis force is not acting on it enough to cause any significant spin-up.

The enhanced satellite image below shows that the concentrated convection associated with Invest 90L has become more circular and widespread today.

The enhance GOES image below shows that the remains of Gaston are becoming more circular but the areal convective coverage is fairly small. This is due to the large area of Saharan dust that surrounds the system and has played a large part in Gaston’s weakening.

The METEOSAT image below shows the remains of Gaston on the far left and the tropical wave now exiting Africa which could become Hermine if it is named next. If Invest 90L were named first, the next system will be Igor. The name Igor has never been used as a tropical storm name. Two additional convective clusters in central and eastern equatorial Africa are poised to exit into the Atlantic by then end of the upcoming week.

Large areas of dry air can be seen in the Water Vapor satellite image below. The remains of Gaston are beginning to become disentagled with the drier air which could lead to some intensification.

The long range GFS model shows a weak Gaston in the Caribbean by next Saturday, Sept. 11, 2010 and another strong tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic which could be named Hermine.