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Hermine heads for Mexico

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hermine rapidly developed from Invest 90L which we had been following in the Bay of Campeche for a few days. It was identified as a tropical depression and 11PM EDT, Sunday, September 5 and was upgraded to a tropical storm at 5AM EDT, Monday, September 6, 2010.  Unlike, the remains of Gaston which has been dealing with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, Hermine began in a very moist environment in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The rapid development of Hermine is a reminder to everyone along the Gulf coast of how quickly storm intensity can change very close to the coast. Hermine threatens NE Mexico and south Texas. Hurricane watches were issued from Rio San Fernando, MX northward to Baffin Bay, TX in case the rapid strengthening continues up until landfall. Hermine has the potential of producing flooding rains and tornadoes in TX as she moves inland in Texas.

During the afternoon hours of Monday, September 6, the center of circulation as depicted by Brownsville radar showed a turn more to the NW, which would bring the center of highest winds ashore over Mexico.

The enhanced satellite image below shows a circular shape to the convection associated with Hermine and banding features trying to develop in the southern semicircle.

The long range of the Brownsville radar at 3:17 PM EDT, Sept. 6 showed a clearly defined circulation center approaching landfall on the Mexican coast.

An Air Force plane was in route to Hermine and at 2:29 PM, Sept 6 showed a waypoint NE of the center with a flight level wind of 41.4 MPH.

The vortex message from the plane at 3:09 PM EDT, Sept. 6 indicated a maximum surface wind speed of 54.1 MPH and a maximum flight level wind speed of 55.2 MPH.

Wind speed from buoys in the Gulf in mid-afternoon on Monday showed winds generally in the 20 to 30 MPH range in the Texas coastal and offshore waters.

Wave height as shown below were beginning to increase.

The wave height contour graphic shown below indicates waves as high as 11.2 feet near the center of Hermine on Monday afternoon.

The basin-wide satellite image shown below pinpoints the location of Hermine, the remains of Gaston and a new strong tropical moving off of Africa. Models show the new wave developing into a strong tropical cyclone this week in the eastern Atlantic. The next name on the list is Igor.

Convection with the remains of Gaston continue to be disorganized as seen in the enhanced IR image below. Nevertheless, gusty winds will move across the Leeward  Islands Monday and Tuesday and into the Virgin Islands Tuesday.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a dry environment surrounding the remains of Gaston, which have fortunately prevented him from reintensifying.

The long range GFS model shows a weak trough of low pressure associated with Gaston over Cuba by next Saturday and a new strong tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic. If no other storms are named before then, the name would be assigned as Igor.