MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tropical Storm “Nicole” poses little threat

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

Tropical Depression sixteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole this morning based on a few surface observations showing sustained winds of around 40mph. Despite the upgrade, “”Nicole” poses little threat to Florida as the track has shifted east of the state and the strongest winds are well removed from the center.

Some peak wind gusts this morning.

Holguin (eastern Cuba): 34 kt
Guantanamo Bay (eastern Cuba): 26 kt
Nassau Airport (Bahamas): 41 kt
George Town (Bahamas): 27 kt
ship at 16°48′N 81°30′W: 35 kt

Rain has been heavy across south Florida and Cuba. Some of the heaviest rains have occurred in Jamaica which is located several hundred miles away from the center of the storm. We are receiving reports of flooding and homes being washed away on the island country. Heavy rain will continue to spread over the Bahamas.

As “Nicole” moves away from Florida she will become a non tropical low that will help to usher in slightly cooler but MUCH LESS HUMID weather across most of the state.  Temperatures will likely reach the 60s for lows in most areas in central Florida. Some computer models are trying to form another tropical low over the Caribbean over the weekend. We will continue to monitor the area for development.

Caribbean about to get busy

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

As we move into late September and October the focus of tropical development shifts from the eastern Atlantic (Cape Verde) to the western Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Already, we are keeping an eye on a vigorous tropical wave that should develop into a named storm during the next few days. While we can not predict an exact track for developing systems far in advance, it would make sense that the entire Gulf coast region should be prepared for a tropical storm/hurricane hit between now and mid- October. TCHP (Tropical Cyclone heat Potential) is already at near record levels and this potential fuel is ready to be tapped. The presence of a strong la Nina and recent tropical development trends in the eastern and central Atlantic all suggest that multiple storms will be developing farther west, in areas that would increase the risk of a storm impacting the continental United States.

“Bonnie” on the way??

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

The vigorous tropical wave located near Hispaniola continues to look better organized on satellite this afternoon. While we are not seeing any dramatic drop in atmospheric pressure, environmental conditions continue to favor development. An upper level low, clearly seen on water vapor imagery, is actually aiding in thunderstorm development. Based on current trends it seems likely that a tropical depression or storm will be developing north of Hispinola or near the south east Bahamas during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The forecast track is becoming more clear cut as a subtropical ridge will stay north of the system for the next few days. Slow intensification is likely, but there is an area of dry air aloft over the Bahamas and Florida that could hinder development as the depression/storm approaches the United States. We will have to watch this area closely. Any impacts to Florida would not be until later this week with the potential of a storm in the Gulf by the end of the weekend.

TD #2 heading for Texas/Mexico

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

While TD #2 may not become a hurricane, there are serious concerns about flooding in Texas and Mexico from heavy rainfall over swollen creeks and rivers. There are areas still flooded from the passage of hurricane “Alex” that may receive an additional 4″ to 8″ of rainfall. Already bands of rain have been increasing on the Corpus Christi radar and this trend will continue along the coast thru Thursday.

Despite a lack of deep convection around the center of the depression, there is an opportunity for TD #2 to become TS “Bonnie” before landfall Thursday night. Seas surface temps have been cooled by the passage of “Alex”, but are still warm enough to support intensification. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low. Storm surge and wind impacts should be rather low unless the storm intensifys rapidly, which I do not expect to happen due to the storm’s large size and lack of thunderstorms near the center.